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The opinions and perceptions of small-business owners matter, and, in Corpus Christi, the entrepreneurial outlook is good. That’s according to a recent study by Dr. Jim Lee, regents professor of economics at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi.
Lee is currently director of the South Texas Economic Development Center at the College of Business. He also serves as chief economist at the university’s EDA University Center. He conducts business surveys every quarter in the Coastal Bend because, he said, “a lot of people want to know what’s going on.”
“It seems like the economy is much stronger than we expected given what we had a year ago,” Lee told Corpus Christi Business News. “That’s amazing.”
The outcome is particularly amazing when compared to similar economic stressors in the 1980s: falling oil prices leading to a recession.
“We obviously expected something more severe, more drastic,” Lee said. “It’s been more than a year since the oil crisis first sent prices down below $50 a barrel. We thought maybe there would be a recession, but that’s not happening.”
What is happening is small-business owners are scaling back and holding on rather than cashing out and closing shop.
“There has been an uptake in consumer confidences and in businesses,” he said. “This is very encouraging to see a positive note when we see broader economic downturns.”
In the survey, business owners are asked how business was in the past three to six months and how they see the future in the next six months. They are asked about where they think the economy is headed and whether they are hiring or investing in new office equipment or office space.
“We also ask them about the obstacles they are facing,” Lee said. “All these answers point to a positive trend that we are developing right now. They see things are getting better or that they expect things to do better soon.”
Unemployment is down in the Coastal Bend, at least in lower-paying jobs. Unemployment is up for higher-paying jobs such as construction and manufacturing, but more of those jobs are on the horizon, he said, pointing to the Harbor Bridge construction, which should begin soon. Also, the housing market is still strong and manufacturing jobs are coming on-line as major international companies complete construction of several new plants in the port area.
When asked about his own predictions for the future of the oil and gas market and its effect on the Coastal Bend, Lee demurred.
“My guess is as good as anybody else’s,” he said. “That’s why we need this survey.”
The survey for the second quarter of the year is now underway.
“What people think will affect the economy later,” he said. “Now, at least, we have some positive signs, which may help the economy. Perceptions are important.”
